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DOING THE MATH: GP2 Championship Probability

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With just two rounds of the GP2 championship remaining in 2016, thoughts will start to turn over to who will become the eleventh champion in the series.

This weekend the drivers face the task of the Sepang International Circuit before heading to the Yas Marina Circuit in Abu Dhabi on November 25-27.

A maximum total of 96 points is remaining for each driver for two feature race wins (25 points), two sprint race wins (15 points), two pole positions (four points) and four fastest laps (two points).

Due to the madness of the racing in 2016, 11 drivers can still win the title, half the grid: Prema Racing’s Pierre Gasly and Antonio Giovinazzi, Russian Time’s Raffaele Marciello and Artem Markelov, ART Grand Prix’s Sergey Sirotkin, Racing Engineering’s Jordan King and Norman Nato, MP Motorsport’s Oliver Rowland, DAMS’ Alex Lynn, Trident’s Luca Ghiotto and Pertamina Campos Racing’s Mitch Evans.

Gasly has led the way for the last few races, currently topping the standings on 174 points, 10 clear of teammate Antonio Giovinazzi.

A maximum of 48 points will be available to the drivers in the final round, meaning that drivers will have to remain within this total of the leader after the racing ends in Malaysia.

If Gasly outscores Giovinazzi by 39 points in this weekend, the Frenchman will be crowned as champion.

Marciello is currently 36 points behind Gasly and will be out of the championship race if he claims 13 points less than Gasly.

Sirotkin, fourth in the championship on 115 points, will have to outscore Gasly by 11 points to remain in the fight.

King (fifth, 112 points) will have to outscore Gasly by 14 points to stay in the fight, while his teammate Nato (sixth, 107 points) has to defeat the championship leader by 19 points to still have a chance in the final two races.

Rowland (seventh, 106 points) is required to beat Gasly by 20 points to stay in the title hunt.

Lynn (eighth, 91 points) faces the prospect of outscoring the championship leader by 35 points to keep his title hopes alive.

Ghiotto (ninth, 90 points) has to outscore Gasly by 36 points to keep his hopes of the crown until the final round.

Markelov (tenth, 86 points) will have to beat Gasly by 40 points to stay as a championship challenger in Abu Dhabi.

Evans (11th, 81 points) is the least likely driver to win the title. The New Zealander needs to outscore the leader by 45 points to stay in the title fight.

Of course, Giovinazzi could outscore Gasly to complicate things further. Each of the other ten drivers would have to be within 48 points of his points total to be in the fight in Abu Dhabi if he took the lead.

With so many drivers and possibilities in store for the Malaysian round of the series, it will be a complicated scenario, with calculators and headaches, to figure out who will still be fighting for the crown in the final weekend of the series.

The year of 2016 continues to show itself as one of the best seasons of GP2 to date after the most dominant champion, Stoffel Vandoorne, stunk up the show last year.

EMAIL CAMERON AT cpatersonf1@gmail.com

The thoughts and opinions expressed here are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of PopularOpenWheel.com, its owners, management or other contributors. Any links contained in this article should not be considered an endorsement.

Cameron Paterson

Cameron Paterson is currently studying Media as well as writing for several websites. A watcher of motorsport since 2007, a casual television watch evolved to watching and reading anything related to something with wheels and an engine. A fan of writing, it was a no-brainer about what to do to try and get into the sport.

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